Monday, 22 June 2015

What is Time trend and how to interpret?


In any long time-series, simple time trend can be added as independent variable.

Y = a + bX + cTrend + error


Here, trend is taking a value from 1 to T (total no. of observations in our sample). If c is coming to be significant, it can be inferred that Y is changing with change in time, in addition with independent variable X. The coefficient of Trend (here c) indicates change in dependent variable (Y) with one unit change in time. It gives direction of dependent variable over the time.

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